A large county or state in area may have fewer voters than a small one in area, for example. The next batch will be reported at 9 a.m. (I am deleting my post earlier that said Philly officials said they were not reporting more mail-in results tonight, because it appears to have been based on incomplete information. In recent elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to 270 electoral votes. Vice versa for Montana. Trump, meanwhile, is trying to run up the score in those pro-fracking areas that already likehim. By this definition, Arizona and Georgia are still (slightly) red states R+7.6 and R+7.4, respectively. The last two elections have seen five states and a district in Maine break their same party streaks. I think most of these states that we have either red or blue are going to be up for grabs. [1] The feature proved to be so popular that, four years later, all three major television networks used colors to designate the states won by the presidential candidates, though not all using the same color scheme. Source: NYT exit polls: 24,537 surveyed[54], Source: CNN exit polls: 24,558 surveyed[55], Democratic [18], Thus, red and blue became fixed in the media and in many people's minds, despite the fact that the Democratic and Republican parties had not officially chosen colors. While some red counties shifted to the left, larger margins of victory than Clinton in already-blue countieswas the primary force thatdrove Biden to victory. Biden's success could be attributed to many factors. Pennsylvania has a long history of being consequential in presidential elections choosing 20 of the last 25 . 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events. This election cycle, voters in Pennsylvania were universally able to vote by mail in the general election. After the results were final with the Republican George W. Bush winning, journalists stuck with the color scheme, as The Atlantic's December 2001 cover story by David Brooks entitled, "One Nation, Slightly Divisible", illustrated. An even more detailed precinct-by-precinct breakdown demonstrates that in many cases, large cities voted for Obama, and their suburbs were divided. Polls close in 15 minutes inPennsylvania. On August 5, the risk of death in red states was 1.8 times higher than in blue. Pennsylvania's median household income falls in the middle of the pack. These states often had more regulations and higher taxes. The blue states scored better two ways higher overall average rankings vs. red states (No. By breaking the map down into smaller units (including many blue counties lying next to red counties), these maps tend to display many states with a purplish hue, thus demonstrating that an ostensibly blue or red state may, in fact, be closely divided. Winner did not receive a plurality of the vote and lost the popular vote Wisconsin is a swing, or purple, state. CATO INSTITUTE: Central Bank Digital Currencies Are a Threat to Freedom. Then again, Sen. Bob Casey told me he thought the race could potentially be called in Pennsylvania tonight. In 1980, when John Anderson had a relatively well publicized campaign as an independent candidate, at least one network indicated provisionally that they would use yellow if he were to win a state. Manage Settings Turn on desktop notifications for breaking stories about interest? The analysis that suggests political, cultural and demographic differences between the states is more accurate when applied to smaller geographical areas. "[27] Arguably, this eventually proved to be somewhat true, but not in McCain's favor as Obama won three "red" states that had not voted Democratic in many years, namely Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana along with a part of deep red Nebraska, via the state's (much less conservative as a whole) second congressional district. Over the last decade, there has been a notable increase in Latinos' share of the overall population in Arizona, up from 25 to 31 percent since 2000. Some precincts reported mechanical problems or ran out of supplies. [15][16][17] NBC used the color blue for the incumbent party, which is why blue represented the Democrats in 2000. Most issues involving misunderstandings or miscommunication about voting rules and laws were resolved by Election Task Force prosecutors by phone, and DAO prosecutors and detectives also responded to investigate incidents at polling sites in all six Philadelphia Police divisions. [45][46] Red states and blue states are states that typically vote for the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively. Clinton:36,322 (35.80%). These are general election results for the years listed. With the exception of Maricopa County (Phoenix), Trump won all the Arizona counties that voted for him in 2016 by even greater margins in 2020. Click here to learn more about the role the Lancaster County Local Journalism Fund plays in Lancaster County and to make a tax-deductible donation. Later, in the 1888 presidential election, Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison used maps that coded blue for the Republicans, the color perceived to represent the Union and "Lincoln's Party", and red for the Democrats. The key swing region is the. Similarly, at least one network would have used yellow to indicate a state won by Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, though neither of them did claim any states in any of these years. Pennsylvania's CPVI is R+2. Copyright 2023 | Terms & Conditions | About Us | Dick Young | Archives. Virginia has continued voting for the Democratic presidential nominees (as well as increasingly electing Democrats at the state level), leading to its being reclassified as a blue state in recent years. Will Pennsylvania be red or blue in 2020? But what they didn't realize was that Trump was surging in rural parts of the state and flipping some swing counties like the ones mentionedabove. Update on Election Day in Philadelphia from the DA's office here: "As of 9:00 p.m. on Tuesday, 68 incidents were reported to the Election Task Force and 67 incidents were peacefully resolved. This election cycle, according to Politico, the state is leaning slightly blue. The "blue wall" went blue once again Democratic. Pennsylvania is generally considered a battleground state, although it voted Democratic in the six elections prior to 2016. Dec. 10, 2020. If a state is not a red state or a blue state, it might be a swing state . Cash, Money, Green: How Will You Feel in Retirement? The colors red and blue are also featured on the United States flag. We worship an awesome God in the blue states, and we don't like federal agents poking around our libraries in the red states. I talked to several elected officials and voter rights groups today, and everyone reported high turnout, particularly in Philadelphia. From the 2000-2004 election only three states changed Color. But the cultural wounds cut the deepest, and are the most likely to drive working-class people to look at the coastal elites and say: "That. The steady expansion of Denver and its suburbs turned a red state into a purple state, then into a blue state where Republicans struggle to win. Special elections, if any, are excluded. Good evening from Philadelphia! As the 2016 election cycle approached, the electoral map had become pretty predictable. But Biden didn't get to 40% like the strategist wanted (and which Obama got beyondtwice). US Treasury Yield Curve: My Favorite Investor Tool, click here to sign up for my free weekly email, The Liberal Invasion of Red-State America, DRUGS, TRAFFICKING, MURDER: Americas Immigration Crisis Continues, Vermont Abandoned, Dairy Farm Economy Devastated. However, as inGeorgia, the majority of Biden's gains came from larger vote margins in counties that also voted Democratic in 2016. Here's the count: 2020: Tap or hover to see names. Trump:70,760 (61.01%) I'm totally zeroed in on Pennsylvania tonight. Data: The Princeton Gerrymandering Project through 2018; 270toWin research. However, the fun fact is that neither of the party national committees has officially accepted these color designations, though informal use by each party is becoming common. As such, a constitutional Republic form of government as the U.S. is (remember, America is not a democracy), could certainly be expected to vote for President Trump by an even wider gap in 2020. China Hopes Recovery Dims Memories of Zero COVID Debacle, Industry Races to Diversify Away from China. What I want to know is the number out of Philly -- what margin is Joe Biden taking out of the state's largest city? All but 10 states1 1Plus one congressional district in Nebraska had voted consistently Democratic or Republican for (at least) the prior four consecutive presidential elections. Global Liquidity Is Increasing Despite the Fed. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump, despite Trump losing the latter election. The Tennessee Department of Health reports that 1,451 people died of drug overdose within the state in 2015. Inversely, in solidly red states, most voters in most urban counties voted for Democrat Barack Obama; good examples for this would be Dallas County, Texas and Fulton County, Georgia (the locations of major U.S. cities Dallas and Atlanta, respectively). Election results provided by the Associated Press. Idaho solidifies its ranking as a top retirement state by offering many tax breaks for seniors. The Bay State added more than 480,000 people last decade for a total population of 7,029,917 in 2020. by The Hill staff - 10/24/14 6:00 AM ET. Winner chosen by the House of Representatives By opting into newsletters you are agreeing to our. In 2020, the state with the highest crime rate in the United States per 100,000 inhabitants was New Mexico. An email has been sent to with a link to confirm list signup. But registration figures vary greatly by county. MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse, Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. In 2016, President Donald Trump won the state by .7%, which totalled about 44,000 votes, and flipped three counties from blue to red. - Matter of Fact with Soledad O'Brien Perhaps no one is better at understanding Pennsylvania voters than former Governor Ed Rendell. Richard C. Young is the editor of Young's World Money Forecast, and a contributing editor to both Richardcyoung.com and Youngresearch.com. The Democratic states, comprising 242 electoral votes had all actually gone blue since 1992 - six straight elections. There was an error processing your request. The source defines a mass shooting as a shooting where three or more people. Robert Vanderbei at Princeton University made the first Purple America map after the 2000 presidential election. The look of a map can vary significantly depending on the classification choices. And this basic arithmetic is in place even before voters factor in the disgraceful fact that VP candidate Kamala Harris is a self-admitted BLM-backed Marxist. So first, I'm looking to see what exactly we learn tonight and how quickly local governments across the state are able to process mail ballots. [11] As late as the 1990s, Democrats were often represented by red and Republicans by blue. The Midwest has five states in the East North Central part of the region and seven in the West North Central. The presidential primary contests are usually decided before Pennsylvania holds its primary, which is on Tuesday, April 26, this year. The following list is tabled from the last Presidential Election 2020. These county-by-county and district-by-district maps reveal that the true nature of the divide is between urban areas and inner suburbs and rural and exurban areas. Biden did so by rebuilding the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to NBC News projections. Continue with Recommended Cookies. You have entered an incorrect email address! Updates about tonight's races in Pennsylvania. Data: MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse through 2018; 270toWin research. I feel like my job this entire night might be explaining why #nothingmatters inPA. This is nice, but you do realize that Maryland has elected Republican governors 3 of the last 5 elections and currently has a Republican sitting in the capital. These maps give extra visual weight to larger areal units, whether by county or state. "Amerika whlt Spiegel Online Nachrichten", "The Urban Archipelago: It's the Cities, Stupid", Choosing colors based on incumbent vs. challenger victory from November, 2004, The Honky Tonk Gap: Country Music, Red State Identity, and the Election of 2004, "Re-imagining the Red States: New Directions for Southern Studies. A purple state refers to a swing state where both Democratic and Republican candidates receive many votes without an overwhelming majority for either party. It further claims that from 1976 to 2004, in an attempt to avoid favoritism in color-coding, the broadcast networks standardized the convention of alternating every four years between blue and red the color used for the incumbent president's party. Sen. Cory Gardner is now the only. Latino voters in the state, like those across the U.S., constitute a solid base for Democrats. Purple haze Pa.: Why the Keystone State is always a presidential battleground. (PA, GA, MI)". So how does all that look visually? 7%78%Median of all states 28%// State data highlighted23%Pennsylvania Median income Pennsylvania's median household. Where the 'Blue Wall' Was Strongest, and Where Cracks Appeared. It is not a blue state or a red state. Traditional political mapmakers, at least throughout the 20th century, had used blue to represent the modern-day Republicans, as well as the earlier Federalist Party. Which are solidly blue counties and red counties? '"[20], There are several problems in creating and interpreting election maps. For the GOP, this represented 179 electoral votes. ", For example, Holly, one example from Jen OMalley Dillon, Bidens campaign manager, that implied they were still counting on Pa could be seen in this quote. 30,000+ mail ballots a teeny tiny fraction of the 2.5 million received as of this morning in the state were just reported in Pennsylvania. However, because of the large geographical size of many states in the Central and Southern United States, the color-coded map appeared to show great support for Bush and the Republicans with smaller outliers of Democratic support on the coasts and near the Great Lakes.[32]. We may be entering the brief "blue mirage" portion of the night, where Biden deceptively looks like he's doing well because counties first report the mail ballots they've been counting all day, and Biden supporters disproportionately voted by mail. The numbers are clear: in 2020, 57.97 percent of Washington voters chose Joe Biden, and only 38.77 percent chose Donald Trump. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee alluded to the color scheme when it launched a national Red to Blue Program in 2006. Same Since 2000: After 2020 Election .mw-parser-output .citation{word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}^1: Split their votes. Nebraska's 2nd district flipped back into the Republican column in 2012 and 2016, but supported Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. The crowd cheers as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a 'Make America Great Again' campaign rally at Williamsport Regional . One trend that has been true for several election cycles is that states that vote Republican tend to be more rural and more sparsely populated (thus having fewer electoral votes) than states that vote Democratic. These editorials note the increasingly polarized political strife in the U.S. between Republican voters and Democratic voters. Charlie We haven't heard yet from Allegheny County, which is also a top source of Democratic votes. Nov. 12, 2020, 11:00 AM UTC / . Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. With the caveat that we still know very, very little about Pennsylvania, let's zoom in on one county: Washington County, which is in the pro-Trump western part of the state. If youre willing to fight for Main Street America, click here to sign up for my free weekly email. To do so, he improved upon Clinton's margins in a range of both. The four "mega-states" have established rival and increasingly polarized visions of state government-one blue, the other red. Sacrificing the Future to China for Bidens Green New Deal. According to the NYT, more than 98% of estimated votes there have been reported. The only deviations from the preexisting red-blue paradigm were all in Obama's favor. 22 vs. 27th) and better average grades in eight of the 14 separate ranking topics: livability, rai That year, the crime rate was 3,620.15 crimes per . #V. The demographic and political applications of the terms have resulted in a temptation to presume this arbitrary classification is a definite and fundamental cultural division. In 2018, the governor's race was settled by just 55,000 votes. [34][35][36], In 1976, only 27 percent of U.S. voters lived in landslide counties, which increased to 39 percent by 1992. There was one historical use, associated with boss rule, of blue for Democrats and red for Republicans: during the late 19th century and early 20th century, Texas county election boards used color-coding to help Spanish-speaking and illiterate voters identify the parties;[8] however, this system was not applied consistently in Texas and was not replicated in any other state. Traditionally, the practice of designating a U.S. state as red or blue is based on the first-past-the-post winner-take-all system employed for presidential elections by 48 of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. If Jimmy Carter, the Democratic candidate that year, won a state, it was lit in red whereas if Gerald Ford, the incumbent Republican president, won a state, it was lit in blue. In fact, he said, some states may experience a "red shift," and even Pennsylvania's blue shift may change in the future as different voters adapt to the new absentee ballot system and counties that used to process them on election night stop doing so. [37][38] In 2020, 58 percent of U.S. voters lived in landslide counties. If the U.S. followed such a pattern, blue would be used for the Republicans and red for the Democrats. Individually and collectively, they are not reducible to red or blue.[29]. If . But Pennsylvania is now red. Although many red states and blue states stay in the same category for long periods, they may also switch from blue to red or from red to blue over time. [25] All these facts should be taken into account when looking at election maps. This is still a substantial difference from the period 1960 to 1980 when every state, save for Arizona, voted for each party at least once. In Maine, two of the four electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner in each of the state's two congressional districts. One smart PA Dem strategist told me he wanted Biden to get to 40% in the county. This is most evident in the Southern United States, where the state Democratic Party organizations tend to be more conservative than the national party, especially on social issues. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. Experts weigh in on swing-state status. A lengthy post-Election court battle is the scenario Biden's camp has so fiercely tried to avoid by expanding their map to 17states. NBC continued its color scheme (blue for Republicans) until 1996. [5] However, at that time, a maker of widely-sold maps accompanied them with blue pencils in order to mark Confederate force movements, while red was for the union.[6]. In 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia and Arizona, states that had last voted Democratic in 1992 and 1996, respectively. Biden wants to cut his losses in those places (and maybe even flip a county here or there), so that's why you see him reiterate again and again that he doesn't want to ban fracking. One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, then we could lose Michigan and Florida and still get over 270 electoralvotes.. In his address before the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston, Barack Obama spoke on the issue of blue states and red states, saying: "The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into red states and blue states red states for Republicans, and blue states for Democrats. In recent years the state government has moved from purple with a democratic governor and a republican legislature with a modest majority, to fire engine red. Sen. Bob Casey and local Democratic Party leaders also said there was massive turnout in the Philadelphia suburbs, which would be a win for Biden. Biden's projected win in the state was fueled by significant gains in already-blue counties, including Atlanta (Fulton County) and its suburbs. Explained! The lack of clear classes make these purple maps prone to the problems of color perception described above. Despite the prevalent winner-take-all practice, the minority always gets a sizable vote. Similarly, Tennessee was won by Bush in both 2000 and 2004, but going into 2004, its governor was a Democrat and both chambers of the state legislature were controlled by Democrats as well. After all, it's only at the center of the political universetonight. Many argue that assigning partisanship to states is only really useful as it pertains to the Electoral College, as well as (more recently) the Senate, primarily a winner-take-all system of elections (with the exceptions of Nebraska and Maine). That march then met Hillary Clinton's 'blue wall' states which, at one time, included Pennsylvania. The state now has just half the 38 electoral votes it had a century ago. Light bulbs on each state changed from undecided white to Republican . That's changed in recent years as political polarization has increased, resulting in red and blue strongholds with bigger victory margins. Prior to Election Day, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a request by Pennsylvania Republicans to block a state court order that allows mail ballots arriving up to three days after Nov. 3 to be counted. But look, this is what PA elected officials told us could happen for months. It feels like the new Florida. More than 75% of the land area is red, when looking at the map based on land areas, while shifting to the population view only about 46% of the map is red. Nearly every town, city and patch of farmland in the country is "purple", a mixture of people, each of whose own political preferences can vary. It is not a red state. In Nebraska, two of the five electoral votes go to the winner of the winner of the statewide popular vote and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner in each of the state's three congressional districts. As of 2020, fully 35 out of 50 states in the U.S. have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000. He served as governor from 2003 to 2011 and was also the mayor of Philadelphia. Independent candidate Ralph Nader did not win any electoral votes, yet he received 2% of the vote of voters from high-income households and voters with graduate degrees. Youve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What? Updated on July 09, 2019 Our list of the most conservative states to live and work featured states favorable to people who enjoy greater liberties, educational choice, right-to-work status, and religious freedom. Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. [41][note 1][42]. The advent of color television in America during the late 1950s and early 1960s prompted television news reporters to rely on color-coded electoral maps, though sources conflict as to the conventions they used. McCain got a slight majority (52% to 47%) of households consisting of married couples; Obama led almost 21 (65% to 33%) among unmarried voters. Former Governor Ed Rendell gives his take. But I've got news for them, too. Also, theres a run off in Georgia so you may have two strikes incorrect. The Democratic or Republican party of a particular state may have policies that departsometimes greatlyfrom those of the national party, sometimes causing that state to favor one party in state and local elections and the other in presidential elections. Biden:43,949 (37.89%), 2016: Same for GA senate races Charlie. Election officials were not permitted by law to begin counting mail-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results here for days. Earlier this year, one election official said the rule could result in upwards of 100,000 mail-in ballots being thrown out. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also alluded the color scheme when it launched a national "Red to Blue Program" in 2006. The following list is tabled from the last Presidential Election 2020. Pennsylvania voted democratic in the 2020 election. [7] The parties themselves had no official colors, with candidates variously using either or both of the national color palette of red and blue (white being unsuitable for printed materials). Trump wanted to drive more votes out of it; Biden wanted to cut his losses. The use of the term Blue or Red has been expanded to differentiate between states being perceived as Liberal and those perceived as Conservative. Although the Electoral College determines the presidential election, a more precise measure of how the country actually voted may be better represented by either a county-by-county or a district-by-district map. We may not know results in PA fordays. Update: Philadelphia officials tell me they will report more mail-in ballot results betweenmidnight and 1 a.m. Trump's New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020. 44% of Americans in the South favored secession, with Republican support at 66%; while Democratic support was 47% in the Pacific states.[50][51][52]. If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. Which parts of Pennsylvania are red and blue -- or something in between? *Maine and Nebraska allow electoral votes to be split. [24] A juxtaposition of differing colors and shades can result in contrast misperceptions. Catholic and Protestant Christians were more likely to vote for McCain than for Obama, whereas voters of other faiths, as well as secular atheist and agnostic voters, predominantly favored Obama. During the 2016 presidential election, two districts (the first and second) gave Clinton over 80% and 90% of the vote. Redistricting 2021: Red states, blue voters Elaine Kamarck Thursday, September 30, 2021 FixGov After a COVID-19-related delay in getting out the census data, states across the country are now. Seven months into the coronavirus crisis, the states with the most severe unemployment in the country all seem to have one thing in common: They vote blue. Is Missouri a red state? As of February 2023, California had the most mass shootings in the United States, with 25 total shootings since 1982. And since groceries are taxable, Idaho gives residents an annual credit to offset the fees (the credit amount is higher for seniors over 65). The answer, of course, is yes they are both of those. Eight of the districts gave Trump 58% or higher. polls closed in Ala., Conn., Del., D.C., Fla., Ill., Maine, Md., Mass., Miss., Mo., N.H., N.J., Okla., Pa., R.I., Tenn. polls closed in Ga., Ind., Ky., S.C., Vt., Va. Presidential results by pre-election forecasted chances, Georgia Senate elections live updates: Jon Ossoff projected to win Ga. Senate seat, ABC News projects Ossoff victory over Perdue, Raffensperger escorted out of state Capitol building, says deputy secretary of state, Here are Georgia's election certification deadlines, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information.